Europe long-range weather forecast for winter 2025-26

OnTheSnow knows how eager you are to get as much information as possible about this winter’s skiing conditions. We’ve gathered weather research from meteorological teams across the globe and summarised the facts to bring you the Europe long-range weather forecast for winter 2025-2026.

Europe long-range weather forecast

On September 11, climatologists at the National Weather Service (NWS) published their latest findings: ‘A transition from ENSO-neutral to La Niña is likely in the next couple of months, with a 71% chance of La Niña during October – December 2025’

So with La Niña looking most likely for winter, how might this effect the long-range weather forecast for winter 2025-2026 in Europe?

Europe long-range weather forecast for winter

We know the weather phenomenon effects the temperature in the Equatorial Pacific, but how does that effect Europe? Well, according to the University of Leeds, it’s all about the jet stream. The balance between high pressure over the Azores and low pressure over Iceland effects the jet stream. This is important as the jet stream is a band of strong winds that carries rain across the Atlantic and this determines where it falls in Europe.

OnTheSnow has gathered information from leading climatologists on how a La Nina winter might effect skiing in Europe for 2025-2026.

La Niña often means colder winters

The Weather Outlook says that while ‘El Niño can sometimes bring warmer winters to Europe and the UK, La Niña will usually bring colder winters.‘ So with this in mind, it certainly seems like we have reason to be optimistic about the Europe long-range weather forecast for winter.

For skiers, the effects of La Niña in Europe are more subtle and less predictable than in regions like North America or Australia, but there are some general tendencies that can impact ski conditions.

How La Niña typically affects European skiers

Colder & Snowier in Northern Europe

Northern and northeastern Europe (including Scandinavia, parts of the UK, the Baltics, and even Germany/Poland) may experience colder-than-average temperatures. This can lead to better early-season skiing in northern resorts and low-elevation areas that usually struggle with snow.

More variable in the Alps

The Alps can have mixed outcomes during La Niña: While it can mean less consistent snow from Atlantic storms, it can also bring colder air which helps preserve the snow that does fall. Generally the further south you go, the drier and warmer the conditions are during La Niña winters.

El Niño/La Niña weather patterns

The Weather Outlook also makes it clear that both events – El Niño and La Niña – can bring extreme weather to many areas and the effects locally can be reversed, depending on the location. Over in North America, the arrival of El Niño or La Niña have more clearly defined impacts. But the further we get from the epicentre in the Pacific, the less predictable things are.

Let’s find out a little more about this weather phenomenon. El Niño and La Niña are oceanic anomalies found in a region of ENSO. This stands for El Niño Southern Oscillation. It is a region found in the equatorial Pacific Ocean which shifts between warm and cold phases.

La Niña is the cold ENSO phase while El Niño is the warm phase. As well as a difference in temperatures, there are also pressure changes.

El Niño and La Niña significantly influence tropical rainfall and pressure patterns. They connection between the ocean and atmosphere is also effected. They have their biggest impact on global climate during the Northern Hemisphere winter. So if the meteorologists are right and a La Niña is on the way, what does this mean for snowfall in the Alps?

If you want to better understand the El Niño and La Niña weather patterns, watch this video from the Met Office . . .

Other factors effecting the Europe long-range weather forecast for winter 2025-2026

Well weather, as we know, is very hard to predict so far in advance. And that is why it is difficult to predict snowfall, especially for specific regions. Changes come from day to day. Weather often develops differently than meteorological models predicted. Some of the most reliable snowfall in Europe falls on high-altitude ski resorts, so that’s often the best bet for those who don’t want to predict the weather.

Some European ski resorts are open all year round. Check out our list of open ski resorts in Europe.